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Today, I will predict who I think will make it to the super regional round of the 2024 NCAA College Baseball Tournament.
If you are a little out of line on how the NCAA Baseball Tournament works here it goes:
1.The first round is called regional play. It includes 16 four team regionals (Top seeds are seeded 1-16). The top seed in each regional hosts. The two seed matches up with the three seed and the one seed in each region matches up with the four seed in each regional bracket. The winners of each of those games plays each other in the winners bracket and losers play each other in the losers bracket in a double-elimination style bracket. The winner of the winner’s bracket game moves on to the regional final while the loser plays a win or go home game versus the team that won in the loser’s bracket. Of course, the team that loses in the loser’s bracket goes home. The winner of the game between the winner in the loser’s bracket and the loser in the winner’s bracket determines who will face the team that has not lost in the regional final. The loser’s bracket team has to beat the winner’s bracket team to force a seventh and deciding game in the regional. But if the winner’s bracket team wins the sixth game, then they go to the Super Regionals, the second round of the tournament.
2.In the Supers (Super Regionals) it is much more simple. The higher seeded team hosts the super regional of the two teams competing. It is a best two out of three series to determine who goes to Omaha for the College World Series, comprised of the eight remaining teams.
3.The College World Series is made up of two four team brackets similar to the way regional play is played. The two winners face each other in the winner’s bracket and the two losers face each other in the loser’s bracket. When a team loses two games, they are out in the double-elimination setting. The two teams that make it through the winner’s bracket face off in the College World Series Finals.
4.The College World Series Finals is a best two out of three game event.
Check out info for all of the regionals here including match-ups, first pitch times, etc.
Regionals (May 31-June 3)
Knoxville Regional (Knoxville, TN)
1.Tennessee 50-11 (22-8) SEC
(4) Northern Kentucky 35-22 (19-11) Horizon League
(2) Southern Miss 40-18 (20-10) Sun Belt
(3) Indiana 32-24-1 (15-9) Big Ten
Carter’s Pick: 1.Tennessee in 6
Tennessee is the best team in the country and the number one overall seed just like they were two short years ago. The Volunteers fell in the super regionals to Notre Dame in that tournament. The difference in this team is that they are more mature and know they can win it all in Omaha. The Volunteers will sweep this regional.
Greenville Regional (Greenville, NC)
16.East Carolina 43-15 (19-8) American Athletic
(4) Evansville 35-23 (17-10) Missouri Valley
(2) Wake Forest 38-20 (15-15) ACC
(3) VCU 37-21 (15-8) Atlantic-10
Carter’s Pick: Wake Forest in 7
Many questioned the NCAA’s decision when they announced the East Carolina as a host because the Pirates fell early in the American Athletic conference tournament. As a result of being the final host, the committee gave East Carolina a difficult two seed in consensus pre-season number one team Wake Forest. It will take seven games, but pitcher Chase Burns will lead the Demon Deacons to the super regionals to face his former team, Tennessee.
Tallahassee Regional (Tallahassee, FL)
8.Florida State 42-15 (17-12) ACC
(4) Stetson 40-20 (20-10) ASUN
(2) Alabama 33-22 (13-17) SEC
(3) UCF 35-19 (14-15) Big 12
Carter’s Pick: 8.Florida State in 7
Florida State is one of a group of ACC teams with the chance to win a national championship in late June. I believe they will be able to advance through Alabama, who appeared in the super regionals a year ago, UCF, and Stetson. The Seminoles could have an ACC Tournament rematch with Duke in the supers if both advance that far.
Norman Regional (Norman, OK)
9.Oklahoma 37-19 (23-7) Big 12
(4) Oral Roberts 27-30-1 (13-15-1) Summit League
(2) Duke 39-18 (16-14) ACC
(3) Connecticut 32-23 (17-4) Big East
Carter’s Pick: Duke in 7
Three of the four teams in the Norman Regional made the 2023 super regional round, Duke and Oral Roberts (who made it to Omaha). The Sooners and Huskies did not make it there last summer but are look to do so in 2024. Oklahoma won the Big 12 regular season title before falling to instate rival Oklahoma State in their last game ever in conference. Duke, coming into Norman playing very well after winning the ACC conference tournament title, will beat Oklahoma twice on their way to the super regionals.
Chapel Hill Regional (Chapel Hill, NC)
4.North Carolina 42-13 (22-8) ACC
(4) LIU 33-23 (24-9) Northeast
(2) LSU 40-21 (13-17) SEC
(3) Wofford 41-18 (12-8) Southern
Carter’s Pick: 4.North Carolina in 7
LSU’s hot end to the season saw them fall just short to top overall seed Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Championship. Third baseman Tommy White continues to crush baseballs and defend at an All-SEC level. But, North Carolina is the national four seed for a reason and outfielder Vance Honeycutt has been fantastic throughout his entire career in Chapel Hill. It will take North Carolina seven games but they will fend off LSU to advance.
Tucson Regional (Tucson, AZ)
13.Arizona 36-21 (20-10) Pac-12
(4) Grand Canyon 34-23 (23-7) WAC
(2) Dallas Baptist 44-13 (17-7) Conference USA
(3) West Virginia 33-22 (19-11) Big 12
Carter’s Pick: Dallas Baptist in 7
Arizona is back as a regional host after a few seasons off. They got a tough draw if a top two seed Dallas Baptist, a top three seed West Virginia, and a top four seed Grand Canyon. I like Dallas Baptist to advance through this regional in seven games. All four teams have a chance to move on but the Patriots have a ton of experience in postseason games like these.
Fayetteville Regional (Fayetteville, AR)
5.Arkansas 43-14 (20-10) SEC
(4) Southeast Missouri State 34-25 (18-9) Ohio Valley
(2) Louisiana Tech 45-17 (18-6) Conference USA
(3) Kansas State 32-24 (15-15) Big 12
Carter’s Pick: 5.Arkansas in 6
Arkansas has lost seven of its last ten games to finish pre-NCAA Tournament play. A year after being dealt TCU in their regional, the committee gave the Razorbacks what much insiders think a much better hand with Louisiana Tech, Kansas State, and Southeast Missouri State being the rest of the Fayetteville Regional field. If Arkansas’ pitching has to carry its offense again, the Razorbacks will not sweep the regional but if the offense can step up, I believe that will happen.
Charlottesville Regional (Charlottesville, VA)
12.Virginia 41-15 (18-12) ACC
(4) Penn 24-23 (11-10) Ivy League
(2) Mississippi State 38-21 (17-13) SEC
(3) St. John’s 37-16-1 (14-7) Big East
Carter’s Pick: Mississippi State in 7
Virginia feels underseeded at number twelve nationally. Putting Mississippi State in Charlottesville as a team that could have hosted feels wrong especially with the Cavaliers being seeded a little lower than many thought they would be. The Bulldogs will advance through after wins over St. John’s and Virginia to match up with the winner of the Fayetteville Regional.
Clemson Regional (Clemson, SC)
6.Clemson 41-14 (20-10) ACC
(4) High Point 34-25 (17-7) Big South
(2) Vanderbilt 38-21 (13-17) SEC
(3) Coastal Carolina 34-23 (16-14) Sun Belt
Carter’s Pick: 6.Clemson in 7
Clemson lost in their own regional a year ago when red hot Tennessee beat the Tigers. Clemson was dealt Vanderbilt as their two seed this season. While the Commodores are not as talented as the Volunteers were last season, Tim Corbin is one of the best coaches of all-time so they will be a challenge. Clemson cannot look past Coastal Carolina and High Point but I do not think they will.
Stillwater Regional (Stillwater, OK)
11.Oklahoma State 40-17 (19-9) Big 12
(4) Niagara 38-15 (20-4) MAAC
(2) Nebraska 39-20 (16-8) Big Ten
(3) Florida 28-27 (13-17) SEC
Carter’s Pick: 11.Oklahoma State in 7
Oklahoma State has been dealt some tough teams in their regional’s over the last two seasons and this year is no different. After falling to eventual Omaha teams Arkansas (2022) and Oral Roberts (2023), Nebraska, the Big Ten tournament champion, up and down but talented Florida, and Niagara make their way to O’Brate Stadium to face the Cowboys. The raucous environment in Stillwater will push Oklahoma State finally through to the super regionals.
College Station Regional (College Station, TX)
3.Texas A&M 44-13 (19-11) SEC
(4) Grambling 26-26 (18-8) SWAC
(2) Louisiana 40-18 (23-7) Sun Belt
(3) Texas 35-22 (20-10) Big 12
Carter’s Pick: 3.Texas A&M in 6
Texas A&M has looked like one of the best teams in the country all season, especially offensively with Braden Montgomery and Jace Laviolette hitting home runs. Louisiana had a great season in the Sun Belt, A&M’s future instate SEC rival Texas, and the SWAC’s Grambling come to College Station. I do not see any team in this regional challenge the Aggies. The Aggies sweep their three games.
Santa Barbara Regional (Santa Barbara, CA)
14.UC-Santa Barbara 42-12 (26-4) Big West
(4) Fresno State 33-27 (16-14) Mountain West
(2) San Diego 40-13 (20-10) West Coast
(3) Oregon 37-18 (19-11) Pac-12
Carter’s Pick: Oregon in 7
UC-Santa Barbara and San Diego are common names in college baseball. Oregon swept the Nashville Regional before losing to Oral Roberts in their super regional a year ago. This regional should be very competitive but I see no reason why the Ducks can’t make it back to the super regional round this season.
Athens Regional (Athens, GA)
7.Georgia 39-15 (17-13) SEC
(4) Army 31-21 (16-8) Patriot League
(2) UNC-Wilmington 39-19 (20-7) CAA
(3) Georgia Tech 31-23 (15-15) ACC
Carter’s Pick: 7.Georgia in 7
Georgia’s Charlie Condon won the SEC home run after smashing the regular season home run record with over 30 home runs on the season. UNC-Wilmington, Georgia Tech, and Army join the Bulldogs in Athens. In just his first season in Athens, Wes Johnson has turned Georgia into a great team. Georgia will win their regional but it will take seven games.
Raleigh Regional (Raleigh, NC)
10.NC State 33-20 (18-11) ACC
(4) Bryant 36-19 (17-7) America East
(2) South Carolina 36-23 (13-17) SEC
(3) James Madison 34-23 (17-13) Sun Belt
Carter’s Pick: 10.NC State in 7
NC State last made it to Omaha in 2021 when they upset top overall seed Arkansas in their super regional in Fayetteville. After missing the tournament last season, the Wolfpack will open against Bryant on Friday before facing either South Carolina or James Madison on Saturday. It will not be easy with South Carolina playing better baseball but NC State will advance to the super regionals.
Lexington Regional (Lexington, KY)
2.Kentucky 40-14 (22-8) SEC
(4) Western Michigan 32-21 (19-11) MAC
(2) Indiana State 42-13 (22-5) Missouri Valley
(3) Illinois 34-19 (18-6) Big Ten
Carter’s Pick: 2.Kentucky in 7
Kentucky shared the regular season SEC title with Tennessee, with matching 22-8 records in conference play. Being the number two overall seed, the committee gifted the Wildcats a regional they can definitely win. The two seed headed to Lexington is Indiana State, a team that played in the Fort Worth Super Regional a season ago and with a 42-13 record this season, deserved to host but were not given the opportunity to do so. Illinois, the three seed, won the Big Ten regular season title and four seed Western Michigan took home the MAC tournament title, gifting them an automatic bid to the Big Dance. Kentucky and Indiana State should play three times in what should be a very entertaining regional but it will be the Wildcats who advance to the super regionals.
Corvallis Regional (Corvallis, OR)
15.Oregon State 42-14 (19-10) Pac-12
(4) Tulane 35-24 (15-12) American Athletic
(2) UC-Irvine 43-12 (26-4) Big West
(3) Nicholls State 38-20 (16-8) Southland
Carter’s Pick: 15.Oregon State in 6
Oregon State is a perennial hosting squad in college baseball. However, being the number fifteen national seed, the Beavers got a relatively easy regional. They drew UC-Irvine, a quality Big West opponent and two teams that are in just because they won their conference tournaments to receive automatic bids, three seed Nicholls State and four seed Tulane. I am not saying either of those teams cannot make it out of Corvallis and into the supers (because four seed Oral Roberts escaped the 2023 Stillwater Regional and Eugene Super Regional to make it to Omaha) but Oregon State is going to be a hard team to beat. OSU will sweep their regional and potentially head to Lexington for the next round.
