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I used ESPN for statistics in this blog post.
*All game are at central standard time and all rankings are based on this week’s AP Top 25*
This post will benefit readers because they will find out who I think will win each of the important men’s college basketball games this weekend including St. John’s at. Seton Hall, Vanderbilt at. Tennessee, Wisconsin at. Purdue, North Carolina at. Duke, Auburn at. Alabama, Michigan State at. Michigan, and Iowa at. Nebraska. Plus, I write my thoughts on why the said team will win and improve their chances at getting a better seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
The importance of the final game of the regular season has a defining effect on each team’s ability to have success in their conference tournament next week and beyond in March Madness if they make it that far. So, my writing details just how important winning the final game of the regular season is for each of these 16 teams discussed in this blog post.
*All games are at Central Standard Time, and all rankings are based on this week’s AP Top 25*
Friday, March 6
18.St. John’s (23-7) at. Seton Hall (20-10)
8 p.m., FS1
St. John’s are on the road for a rematch versus Seton Hall to close the regular season for both teams. The Red Storm edged Georgetown 72-69 and the Pirates defeated Xavier 77-68 on Wednesday night. Back on Jan. 20, St. John’s won 65-60 against Seton Hall at home. Now, they attempt to beat a Pirates team that has won four of his last six games.
The Johnnies are powered by forwards Zuby Ejiofor (15.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 1 block a game), and Bryce Hopkins (13.4 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 steal) to a 17-2 record in Big East play headed into the final weekend of the regular season, which is tied for the conference lead with UConn. Pirate forwards Naijai Hines and Stephon Payne, who combine to score over 12 points and eight rebounds per game will have to put together a great defensive effort and avoid getting in foul trouble as they face Ejiofor and Hopkins on Friday.
Without a true point guard, Oziyah Sellers, Ian Jackson, and Joson Sanon must come together to lead St. John’s on the road against a Seton Hall team they beat by just five points ago over a month ago. Seton Hall’s top five scorers are guards. Both Adam Clark (12.3 points, 4.8 assists, and 2 steals per game) and AJ Staton-McCray (12.1 points and 1.6 steals) will be who Sellers, Jackson, and Sanon are worried about defending and causing havoc to cause the Pirates problems on Friday. If they do that, a shared Big East regular season championship could be in sight for the Huskies.
In what should be a low-scoring, close game until the end, Seton Hall must take advantage of their last opportunity to get a win that is near the top of the bracket with a victory over projected five seed St. John’s. The home energy of the Pirate crowd should be helpful but if the Red Storm’s offense can be better than it was on Tuesday night, St. John’s should take care of win number 18 in league play. A loss for Seton Hall would mean another missed opportunity to help their chances of getting in the NCAA Tournament but they will still have a chance if they can make a run at next week’s Big East Tournament in New York City.
Final Score: St. John’s 79, Seton Hall 74
Saturday, March 7
24.Vanderbilt (23-7) at. 23.Tennessee (21-9)
1 p.m., ESPN
Vanderbilt is in Knoxville for a rematch against Tennessee where they will attempt to avenge their loss at home just two weeks ago. The Commodores defeated Ole Miss 88-86 in overtime while Tennessee handled South Carolina 78-59 on Tuesday night. The Commodores will have to play exceptionally well to defeat the Volunteers on the road after losing three of their last five contests. The Volunteers will attempt to become a four seed in the NCAA Tournament beginning with a win on Saturday.
Since Vanderbilt went on a two-game win streak with wins over Auburn and Texas A&M back on Feb. 10 and 14, the Commodores have lost three of their last five games. Point guard Tyler Tanner remains as the most consistent player for Mark Byington’s team with 19 points a contest. Duke Miles’ return from injury has helped Tanner in the back court. The consistency of sharpshooter Tyler Nickel’s three-point shot will be the difference on if Vanderbilt can avenge the loss they took to Tennessee two weeks ago. Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been Volunteer’s leader throughout the season, scoring a team-leading 18 points, assisting on almost six baskets, and adding two steals a game. If Gillespie and fellow guards Bishop Boswell and Amari Evans are able to make shots early in the first half and get second attempts from distance thanks to rebounds by their front court, Tennessee can have success and win this game.
The Commodores’ Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington will be important for rebounding against the Volunteers, one of the nation’s top teams on the glass. McGlockton scores 10 points and grabs seven rebounds and Jalen Washington gets nine points, adds almost six rebounds, and over a block a contest. Even though both players are undersized, McGlockton’s three-point shooting and Washington’s impact on defense must be felt in front of a raucous environment in Knoxville. Without freshman sensation Nate Ament thanks to a high-ankle sprain last week, the Volunteers’ interior scoring will be up to JP Estrella, Felix Okpara, and Jaylen Carey, who will have much better height and length along their front court than Vanderbilt’s.
At the end of the day, Vanderbilt should have defeated Tennessee at home on Feb. 21. After losing to No. 17 Alabama 71-69 on Feb. 28 after leading for almost the entire game, the Volunteers missed the chance to win the SEC regular season championship. After a bounce back victory over the Gamecocks on Tuesday, Tennessee extends their win streak to two games with a victory over the Commodores.
Projected Score: Tennessee 81, Vanderbilt 77
Wisconsin (21-9) at. 15.Purdue (23-7)
3 p.m., CBS
Wisconsin and Purdue face off in West Lafayette on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers dominated Maryland 78-45 and the Boilermakers took care of Northwestern 70-66 on Wednesday night. The two teams are tied for fourth in the Big Ten standings, five games back of top place Michigan before they square off. The winner of Saturday’s game will be in better position as they head to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament next week.
Wisconsin is definitely capable of winning against No. 15 Purdue with upset victories already this season against No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 Michigan State. The Badgers can do so with guards John Blackwell, Nick Boyd, and Braeden Carrington on the perimeter getting what they can done against one of the most talked about back courts on the other side of the court with Purdue. Senior guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined for just 17 points but freshman CJ Cox exploded for 27 against the Wildcats, helping them to their close win.
On Wednesday, Austin Rapp came off the bench and led Wisconsin in scoring up front with 11 points but he only had one rebound against the Terrapins. The Badgers’ front line will have to be better with improved performances Aleksas Bieliuaskas and Nolan Winter. The Wisconsin front court will have to be better because if they are not, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff combined for 20 points and 17 rebounds. If Kaufman-Renn and Cluff can be successful offensively, it all be hard for Wisconsin to come out on top.
In what should be a back and forth game throughout with Purdue’s recent struggles, Wisconsin’s guards must take advantage of the lack of defense from Smith and Loyer at times if they want to win this game on the road. This is Smith, Loyer, and Kaufman-Renn’s final game at Mackey Arena and it will not be a loss. The Boilermakers beat the Badgers in a close one.
Projected Score: Purdue 84, Wisconsin 81
5.Florida (24-6) at. Kentucky (19-11)
3 p.m., ESPN
Florida attempts to extend their 10-game winning streak in Lexington on Saturday when they try to sweep the season series against Kentucky inside Rupp Arena. The Gators won their tenth consecutive against Mississippi State by scoring over 100 points for the second straight game, in a 108-74 victory. The Wildcats lost to Texas A&M 96-85 in midweek action. Kentucky attempts to close out the regular season with a win against the SEC regular season championship in front of their home crowd on Senior Day against Florida.
The Wildcats will have to go up against Gators’ forward Alex Condon, who has scored 20+ points in his last four games. Against the Bulldogs on Tuesday, Condon scored 26 points and added seven rebounds while his front court mate Rueben Chinyelu had another double-double performance with 11 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks. Outside of Mouhamed Dioubate’s 19 points and seven rebounds in the loss to the Aggies, the Kentucky front court combined for only 18 points. They will have to put up a strong showing with Florida forward Thomas Haugh likely returning to action after resting Tuesday’s action.
The Gators’ guards have improved over SEC play with both starting guards Xavian Lee and Boogie Fland scoring double digits and assisting on nine combined fields goals in their victory over Mississippi State. Lee and Fland will have to deal with Kentucky’s Otegah Oweh, who scored 24 points to lead the Wildcats. Oweh and his teammates Denzel Aberdeen and Colin Chandler will have to play fantastic on Saturday afternoon if they want to outlast Florida.
The Gators have already locked up the SEC regular season championship and the top seed in next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville. So the question presents itself. How much does this game really matter to them? The Wildcats need a victory after losing four of their last six games to remain above the dreaded eight seed line in the NCAA Tournament. A loss for the Wildcats would have them trending that way. Florida will go into Rupp Arena and get a close win (by their standards) over Kentucky, getting their 16th game in league play.
Projected Score: Florida 87, Kentucky 73
18.North Carolina (24-6) at. 1.Duke (28-2)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
North Carolina is in Durham attempting to sweep the season series against No. 1 Duke for the first time since the 2023-2024 season. On Monday, the Blue Devils dominated North Carolina State 93-64 in Raleigh. The Tar Heels defeated Clemson 67-63 on Tuesday. Duke has already clinched a second consecutive ACC regular season championship. Now, they look to avenge their buzzer-beater loss to North Carolina on Saturday night.
Blue Devil forward Cameron Boozer scored 24 points and added 11 rebounds in the back and forth game late with the Tar Heels a month ago that they eventually lost. But now, Boozer and center Patrick Ngongba, who scored just four points and seven rebounds against North Carolina, was limited due to fouling out early in the second half. If Ngongba can stay out of foul trouble on Saturday, which will be easier as the Tar Heels will be without star freshman forward Caleb Wilson due to injury, they will have a much better shot to continue their streak to four of the last five games where they have won by at least 26 points. When Henri Veesar is on the floor for North Carolina, positive things happen. Against Duke a month ago, the forward dropped 13 points and rebounded 11 missed shots. He will have to be even better against Boozer and the Blue Devil front court without Wilson by his side.
If Boozer leads Duke on offense and Ngongba anchors the paint on defense, all the Blue Devil back court will have to do is support their teammates playing in the painted area. Against North Carolina on the road, Duke guards combined for 33 points, seven assists three steals and just three turnovers. If they continue to limit turnovers and get the scoring production they have received from Isaiah Evans (19 points against Virgina on Feb. 28) and Dame Sarr (16 points against North Carolina State on March 2). The Tar Heels’ leader, Seth Trimble scored only nine points in their victory on Tuesday. His back court mate, Luke Bogavac scored 20 points against the Tigers. Trimble will have to be better than he was on his senior night against the Blue Devils.
Duke has proven that they are the best team in the country with their win over No. 3 Michigan and blowout victories over the past couple of weeks. The Blue Devils can make another statement by avenging their loss to instate rival North Carolina on Saturday night. The Tar Heels must do their best against Boozer and Co. without Wilson in the lineup. The Blue Devils will take care of North Carolina by 10+ at home.
Projected Score: Duke 85, North Carolina 71
Auburn (16-14) at. 16.Alabama (22-8)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Auburn looks to get on the right side of the bubble by attempting to give Alabama their second consecutive defeat on Saturday. The Tigers defeated LSU score while the Crimson Tide dropped their game to Georgia 98-88. Auburn will be walking into a hornet’s nest inside Coleman Coliseum with a raucous environment following Alabama’s loss on Tuesday.
If the Tigers want to get back on the right side of the bubble, forward Keyshawn Hall and guard Tahaad Pettiford will have to play up to their standard and better if they want to defeat Alabama off of a loss in their gym. Hall (20.6) and Pettiford (15.1) lead the Tigers in scoring and will be expected to duel with Alabama’s hot shooting guards and forwards. In the Crimson Tide’s loss on Tuesday, Labaron Philon scored 26 points, Latrell Wrightsell scored 19 points, and Aden Holloway scored 15 points. To put Auburn away, Philon, Wrightsell, and Holloway will need similar performances and forward Amari Allen will need to bounce back from a 3 point performance to win this game.
The Tigers’ coach Steven Pearl has not had a successful season in his first year on “The Plain” and while he likely won’t be fired, a victory over Alabama in a rivalry game would mean a lot for him and his program entering next season, especially if they do not make the NCAA Tournament.
On Saturday, if the Alabama defense can show up, it should be all Crimson Tide. The Tiger offense will not be able to keep up and Alabama will clinch the two seed in the SEC Tournament next week in Nashville.
Projected Score: Alabama 94, Auburn 85
Sunday, March 8
8.Michigan State (25-5) at. 3.Michigan (28-2)
3:30 p.m., CBS
Michigan State is in Ann Arbor for a huge last day of the regular season matchup between two of the top teams in the Big Ten and intrastate rivals. The Spartans edged Rutgers 91-87 and the Wolverines defeated Iowa 71-68 on Thursday night. Michigan State has won five consecutive games, putting them in position to be a two seed and if things go well next week in Indianapolis, they could be the final one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has noticeably been struggling since backup point LJ Cason went down with a season-ending injury. The Wolverines attempt to sweep the Spartans on Sunday afternoon.
For the Spartans to keep it close, they must get offensive production outside of Jeremy Fears, who leads the way with 15 points, nine assists, and a steal a game. On the perimeter, Kur Teng and Divine Ugochukwu must support him on the perimeter even though the back court rotation is a bit shorter for the Wolverines without Cason available. Point guard Elliot Cadeau played 30 minutes in the first game since Cason’s injury and scored 11 points and nine assists. Next to him, Nimari Burnett scored just three points and added two rebounds versus the Hawkeyes. Entering Sunday’s matchup, the two sides seem to be with Michigan’s limited depth.
Senior bigs Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper have been mainstays in coach Tom Izzo’s rotations for the last four years. Both guys score over 10 points and seven rebounds a contest. They will have to play their best games of the season if they want to get past a Wolverine front court that is full of talent. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara combined for 46 points, 24 rebounds, three blocks, and a steal. Their contributions were the reason why Michigan went on the road and won on Thursday night.
Like their first meeting on Jan. 30, the Spartans and Wolverines should go back and forth the first 30-35 minutes of this game. Then, Michigan will take over the game with Lendeborg, Johnson Jr., and Mara taking over in the paint. The Wolverines win on their Senior Day and look forward to a couple of days off being the No. 1 seed in next week’s Big Ten tournament.
Projected Score: Michigan 83, Michigan State 73
Iowa (20-10) at. 9.Nebraska (25-5)
4 p.m., FOX
Iowa will face off with Nebraska on Sunday afternoon as both teams attempt to enter next week’s Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis playing well. UCLA dominated the Cornhuskers 72-52 on Wednesday night. The Hawkeyes took a tough 71-68 loss at home but they will look to bounce back with a win over their rival. A win for Nebraska and loss by Michigan State would give them the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament but a loss would keep them at No. 3 or No. 4 depending on Illinois’ last result. Iowa is out of position to get a top spot in the league tournament with a 10-9 record but they can avoid falling to .500 in conference with a victory.
Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz scored 21 points and added four assists in their close loss to the Wolverines. Similar to Michigan State, others will have to step up beside him including Kael Combs and Tavion Banks. In their 20-point loss to the Bruins, Sam Hoiberg led the Cornhuskers with 12 points. Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence, who only scored two points on Wednesday night will be trusted to step up and win the game for Nebraska on Sunday with terrific performances against Stirtz and the Iowa backcourt.
Inside the paint, it has been Cam Manyawu (14 points and eight rebounds) delivering for the Hawkeyes. Cooper Koch will need a better game versus Nebraska after scoring only three points versus Michigan. The trio of Rienk Mast, Pryce Sandfort, and Berke Buyuktuncel to take over versus Iowa with scoring and rebounding.
In what should be a low-scoring game, the Corn Huskers should bounce back and come out victorious with their 15th Big Ten victory of the season. Iowa will be able to hang with Nebraska for awhile in this game but Hoiberg and Mast will win them that game with Stirtz almost single-handily taking the Hawkeyes to a win.
Projected Score: Nebraska 75, Iowa 71
After each of these games end by the time the weekend finishes up, teams will be traveling to their conference tournament’s destination to begin their postseason runs. Whether the team is solidly in the tournament field, on the bubble, or does not have a chance to make it without winning their conference tournament, each team has a chance with the best time of the year just around the corner. Selection Sunday is just nine days away.
