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Here are the twelve teams (seeded 1-12) I believe that will be in this season’s College Football Playoff:
First Round Byes:
1.Indiana (13-0) Big Ten Champion
2.Georgia (12-1) SEC Champion
3.Ohio State (12-1) Big Ten Runner-Up
4.Texas Tech (12-1) Big 12 Champion
Indiana put a stamp on claiming the one seed in this season’s College Football Playoff by defeating No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship game. The Hoosiers will begin their run in the CFP at the Rose Bowl against the winner of the 8./9. game on Jan. 1. Georgia will claim the No. 2 spot behind Indiana after avenging their Sept. 28 loss to 9.Alabama with a dominant 28-7 win over the Crimson Tide.
Ohio State will fall two spots to No. 3 after their loss to Indiana. The Buckeyes will attempt to win back to back CFP National Championships after a few off weeks. Texas Tech will remain at No. 4 after another dominant win over 11.BYU, 34-7, in the Big 12 Championship game. After defeating the Cougars (by a score of 34-7) for the second time, they have won 12 games for the first time in program history.
First Round Home Teams:
5.Oregon (11-1) Big Ten At-Large
6.Ole Miss (11-1) SEC At-Large
7.Texas A&M (11-1) SEC At-Large
8.Oklahoma (10-2) SEC At-Large
All four of Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma will remain exactly where they are ranked following conference championship weekend because none of them participated in any of those games. The Ducks will play at the top of the bracket as the No. 5 seed, setting up a match up against the final team in the field, the No. 12 seed. At No. 6, Ole Miss still gets a home game even after head coach Lane Kiffin left for rival LSU last weekend.
Texas A&M may be thankful that they will get a home game the weekend before Christmas Day because all four of the teams that got bye weeks in last season’s College Football Playoff fell in their quarterfinal match ups. The Aggies fell to instate rival Texas on the final day of the regular season to make them fall from No. 3 to No. 7 in the rankings last Tuesday night.
Oklahoma’s defense carried them to their tenth victory over LSU on Nov. 29. That will not keep the Sooners from hosting a playoff game against either Alabama, Notre Dame, or Miami that will require quarterback John Mateer and his offense to have its best performance of the season to advance to the quarterfinals.
Last Four In:
9.Notre Dame (10-2) Independents At-Large
10.Alabama (10-3) SEC Runner-Up
11.Tulane (11-2) American Champion
12.James Madison (12-1) Sun Belt Champion
Based on how the College Football Playoff selection committee ranked on Tuesday, these will be the final four teams in the College Football Playoff. On Tuesday, they placed Alabama at No. 9 so that if they fell to Georgia, they could still make it in. The selection committee did not penalize SMU for losing last season’s ACC Title game, so Alabama should not be penalized and left out either.
As a result, Notre Dame will rise back up to No. 9. Based on how the selection committee has ranked the Fighting Irish over the last month, they do not want to deal with the Miami argument. They fell to the Hurricanes 27-24 on Labor Day but have not been measured head to head in any one of the selection committee’s rankings because they have not been ranked next to each other.
As a result of Tulane being ranked No. 20 in Tuesday’s rankings and defeating North Texas in the American Championship game on Friday, they will get the No. 11 seed. That would mean a rematch from earlier in the season against Ole Miss. The Rebels defeated the Green Wave 45-10 on Sept. 20. James Madison, who was ranked No. 25 on Tuesday, will get the No. 12 seed over ACC champion Duke (8-5) after defeating Troy in the Sun Belt Championship game.
On the Bubble:
Miami (10-2) ACC At-Large
BYU (11-2) Big 12 Runner-Up
Texas (9-3) SEC At-Large
Vanderbilt (10-2) SEC At-Large
If Miami gets left out of this season’s College Football Playoff, they definitely have a gripe with the selection committee. The Hurricanes defeated the Fighting Irish head to head. The fact that they do not have an ACC Championship trophy next to their name is the reason why they may not be in the playoff. But it would not surprise me if they are in as the last at-large over Notre Dame.
BYU’s only two losses are to No. 4 Texas Tech. Outside of that, the Cougars’ resumé is not strong. But they were blasted in both of those games by a combined score of 63-14 in those games.
Texas’ victory over Texas A&M last weekend would have added to their case to make the College Football Playoff for a third consecutive season if they would not have lost 29-21 to 4-8 Florida back in Oct. 4. Vanderbilt’s 10-2 record would normally grant them entry into the College Football Playoff. But losses to Alabama and Texas kept them out of the SEC Championship game and the Commodores best win is against 8-4 Tennessee or 8-4 Missouri.
Bracket based on my projections:
First Round (Dec. 19-20)
Eugene
5.Oregon
12.James Madison
Norman
8.Oklahoma
9.Notre Dame
Oxford
6.Ole Miss
11.Tulane
College Station
7.Texas A&M
10.Alabama
Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
1.Indiana
8.Oklahoma/9.Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
4.Texas Tech
5.Oregon/12.James Madison
Cotton Bowl (Arlington)
3.Ohio State
6.Ole Miss/11.Tulane
Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens)
2.Georgia
7.Texas A&M/10.Alabama
The semifinals will be played at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ on Jan. 8 and at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia on Jan. 9. The 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship will be wrap up the season on Jan. 19 in Miami Gardens, FL.
