Image – ChatGPT
Click the each of the links below to watch the preview I made for each Power 5 conference tournament, hyperlinked to its conference name.
*All rankings are based on this week’s AP Top 25*
Favorite
(1) No. 1 Duke 29-2 (17-1)
Capping off their already incredible resume with an ACC Tournament Championship on Saturday night would lock up the top overall seed in this season’s NCAA Tournament for the Blue Devils. Duke defeated then AP No. 1 Michigan on Feb. 21 in Washington DC and their only loss in the last month was at the buzzer on the road against instate rival North Carolina.
Other NCAA Tournament locks
(2) No. 10 Virginia 27-4 (15-3)
(4) No. 19 North Carolina 24-7 (12-6)
(6) No. 24 Louisville 22-9 (11-7)
Virginia’s impressive first season under new head coach Ryan Odom has the Cavaliers at lock status after a few up and down seasons with Tony Bennett’s retirement. Virginia can lock up a protected seed by Selection Sunday if they advance to the ACC Championship game. If the Cavaliers take a loss earlier in Charlotte, teams behind on the seed list like Arkansas and Vanderbilt have more Quad 1 opportunities to replace them on the No. 4 seed line.
Despite losing star freshman forward Caleb Wilson to a broken right thumb for the rest of the season, North Carolina finished the year 5-2 without their star. Both of those losses, to North Carolina State and Duke, are to teams that should or will definitely be in the tournament. The Tar Heels will likely be a No. 5 or No. 6 seed depending on their results this week. Carolina will likely advance to the semifinals and take a chance to move up the bracket with a chance to beat the Blue Devils for the second time this season.
Despite a 5-9 Quad 1 record, most bracketologists have Louisville as a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals’ 92-89 victory over Miami on the final day of the regular season helped Pat Kelsey’s team with their momentum as they begin play in the ACC Tournament Second Round on Wednesday afternoon.
Should be in
(3) Miami 24-7 (13-5)
(5) Clemson 22-9 (12-6)
(7) North Carolina State 19-12 (10-8)
Jai Lucas’ first season at Miami has been a success. The Hurricanes’ 13-5 ACC record has them close to lock status. If both Miami and Virginia advance to the semifinal round on Friday, the Hurricanes can avenge a loss they took to the Cavaliers just over two weeks ago. If they got that win or even if they did not, Miami should be in the NCAA Tournament.
Starting on Feb. 11, Clemson won just two games until the end of their regular season. The only two victories were against Louisville on Feb. 28 and Georgia Tech on March 7. The Tigers will need a strong ACC Tournament to help themselves stay off the bubble and wear a home jersey as an eight seed or higher in this season’s NCAA Tournament.
Since a dominant 82-58 victory over North Carolina on Feb. 17, the Wolfpack have lost four games in a row, with two results being 29-point blowouts by the top two teams in the conference, Duke and Virginia. Brackets forecast North Carolina State at the bottom of the nine or top of the ten line thanks to a bad group of bubble teams this season.
On the Bubble
(9) California 21-10 (9-8)
(10) Stanford 20-11 (9-9)
(11) SMU 19-12 (8-10)
(12) Virginia Tech 19-12 (8-10)
California, Stanford, SMU, and Virginia Tech make up a large bubble for the ACC this season. The Seminoles have won three straight games to finish the regular season, including a win over a falling SMU team on the final day of the regular season. A lot will need to happen for Florida State to make the big dance.
California, Stanford, and SMU are all among the first eight teams out of the tournament according to most bracketologists. The Golden Bears finished the regular season’s last six games with a 4-2 record and will need to at least open the ACC Tournament with a win over Florida State and defeated No. 1 Duke in the quarterfinals to enter tournament conversations.
The Cardinal will have to defeat NC State and then do the same to Virginia to potentially make the NCAA Tournament and that may not even be enough. The Mustangs entered ACC play playing great basketball. They were up and down for much of January before ending the regular season on a four-game winning streak.
Potential Bid Stealers
(8) Florida State 17-14 (10-8)
(13) Wake Forest 16-15 (7-11)
(14) Syracuse 15-16 (6-12)
(15) Pittsburgh 12-19 (5-13)
Did Not Make Conference Tournament
(16) Notre Dame 13-18 (4-14)
(17) Boston College 11-20 (4-14)
(18) Georgia Tech 11-20 (2-16)
All of Florida State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, and Notre Dame will have to win the ACC Tournament in Charlotte to make the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Winner: (1) No. 1 Duke
The Blue Devils’ Cameron Boozer will lead his team to a ACC Tournament Championship and they will in fact clinch the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Favorite
(1) No. 2 Arizona 29-2 (16-2)
The Wildcats were undefeated until they went to Lawrence and got beat by Kansas on Feb. 9. Arizona boast wins over fellow Big 12 NCAA Tournament locks BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Kansas in the return game, and Iowa State. If they want to move up the No. 1 seed line, they would need Duke to not win the ACC Tournament Championship, Michigan to not win the Big Ten Tournament Championship, and they need to finish the job by winning the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
Other NCAA Tournament locks
(2) No. 5 Houston 26-5 (14-4)
(3) No. 14 Kansas 22-9 (12-6)
(4) No. 16 Texas Tech 22-9 (12-6)
(5) No. 7 Iowa State 25-6 (12-6)
(10) BYU 21-10 (9-9)
Houston won the regular season Big 12 regular season title in their first two seasons in the league to do so. The Cougars failed to do by two games but could be the top two seed in the NCAA Tournament with a Big 12 Tournament title.
Kansas has been up and down with likely No. 1 NBA Draft pick Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup. Still, the Jayhawks have wins over Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona but losses to UCF, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Arizona State. They look to lock up at least a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a solid run in Kansas City this week.
After Texas Tech’s star forward JT Toppin was ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, there was worry from the media that the Red Raiders would flounder after a loss to Arizona State. Texas Tech has not done as bad as many of thought with a 3-2 record since the loss to the Sun Devils. The Red Raiders defeated Iowa State to end February but have lost back to back games to start March after defeats to TCU and BYU. A bounce back in the Big 12 Tournament should keep them among one of the top five seed lines.
After a dominant run through non-conference play, TJ Otzelberger’s team lost just two games in January, two games in February, and one in March. Iowa State has been inconsistent in March during Otzelberger’s tenure so the Cyclones must play well at the Big 12 Tournament if they want to return to the No. 2 seed line or maintain their spot as a No. 3 seed.
The final lock for the Big 12 is BYU. The Cougars struggled after losing senior guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury against Colorado on Feb. 14, losing four of their last six games of the regular season. But their win over Texas Tech to close the regular season has them at lock status.
On the Bubble
(6) TCU 21-10 (11-7)
(8) UCF 20-10 (9-9)
(9) Cincinnati 17-14 (9-9)
Currently, TCU and UCF remain on the right side of the bubble but will have to win a few games if they want to remain there and get a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs will have to get past Kansas and UCF will have to advance past Cincinnati before facing Arizona if they get that far. The Bearcats, who are currently on the outside looking in, would need to defeat the Knights for the second time this season, beat the Wildcats, and win in the semifinals if they want to make it in.
Potential Bid Stealers
(7) West Virginia 18-13 (9-9)
(11) Colorado 17-14 (7-11)
(12) Arizona State 16-15 (7-11)
(13) Baylor 16-15 (6-12)
(14) Oklahoma State 18-13 (6-12)
(15) Kansas State 12-19 (3-15)
(16) Utah 10-21 (2-16)
All of West Virginia, Colorado, Arizona State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Utah all must win the Big 12 Tournament to advance to play in the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Winner: (2) No. 5 Houston
Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars will overcome Arizona and win their second consecutive Big 12 Tournament Championship in Kansas City. The win could give them the chance to claim the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament depending on results in other conference tournaments.
Big East (New York City)
Bracket
Favorite
(1) No. 13 St. John’s 25-6 (18-2)
Outside of a Jan. 3 loss to Providence and a Feb. 25 defeat to UConn, the Red Storm have been the best team in the Big East. St. John’s claimed their second consecutive regular season conference title thanks to a win over the Huskies a few weeks earlier on Feb. 6 and finishing the regular season strong against Seton Hall, with a strong 72-65 victory on March 6. Now, they welcome the rest of the league to Madison Square Garden on their floor.
Other NCAA Tournament locks
(2) No. 6 UConn 27-4 (17-3)
(3) Villanova 24-7 (15-5)
Despite the Huskies’ splitting the season series against St. John’s, and having a week off before their final regular season game at Marquette, UConn fell to the Golden Eagles on the final day of the regular season. Dan Hurley must refocus his team on the goal of winning the Big East Tournament and then the more important goal of winning a third national championship in four seasons.
Villanova is the only other lock in what has been a terrible season for the Big East. The Wildcats will make the NCAA Tournament in their first season with head coach Kevin Willard with wins over Wisconsin and two over Seton Hall so far this season. Villanova should take care of business against DePaul on Thursday and challenge UConn in a potential semifinal matchup on Friday and they could move up the bracket a bit.
On the Bubble
(4) Seton Hall 20-11 (10-10)
The Pirates are currently on the wrong side of the bubble but a win over Creighton in the quarterfinals on Thursday and another potential shot against St. John’s on Friday could mean wonders if they make it that far. Seton Hall will need a lot of help but if they make it to Saturday’s Big East Championship game, their fortunes may be looking good.
Potential Bid Stealers
(5) Creighton 15-16 (9-11)
(6) DePaul 16-15 (8-12)
(7) Marquette 12-19 (7-13)
(8) Butler 16-15 (7-13)
(9) Providence 14-17 (7-13)
(10) Xavier 14-17 (6-14)
(11) Georgetown 14-17 (6-14)
In a down season for the Big East, Creighton, DePaul, Marquette, Butler, Providence, Xavier, and Georgetown all must win the league’s tournament to become potentially the fourth team to make it into the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Winner: (2) No. 6 UConn
For the Huskies to return to the No. 1 seed line, they will have to defeat their rival St. John’s and prevent them from winning both the regular season and tournament championship back to back. Hurley and UConn will win the Big East Tournament and take their shot at a No. 1 seed if Florida fails to win the SEC Tournament or other craziness occurs during ‘Champ Week’.
Favorite
(1) No. 3 Michigan 29-2 (19-1)
For much of non-conference play and before they fell to Duke on Feb. 21, they were the presumptive No. 1 overall seed in March Madness. However, unless they win the Big Ten tournament and Duke and Arizona fail to win their respective conference tournaments, the Wolverines will likely be the No. 2 or No. 3 national sign. Michigan won the Big Ten by four games after sweeping Michigan State on Sunday.
Other NCAA Tournament locks
(2) No. 11 Nebraska 26-5 (15-5)
(3) No. 8 Michigan State 25-6 (15-5)
(4) No. 9 Illinois 24-7 (15-5)
(5) No. 23 Wisconsin 22-9 (14-6)
(7) No. 18 Purdue 23-8 (13-7)
Nebraska went undefeated until they lost to Michigan on Jan. 27. After that, the Corn Huskers lost four more times to Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, and UCLA before avenging their previous loss to the Hawkeyes to close the regular season in overtime. Nebraska attempts to win their first game in the NCAA Tournament ever!
Michigan State played tremendously in November and December before going 7-2 in January . The Spartans began February with a bad loss to Minnesota but bounced back quickly with a win over Illinois and losing again to Wisconsin. Michigan State won their next five games before dropping the season finale to the Wolverines.
The final team involved in the three-way tie for second place in the Big Ten is high-scoring Illinois. The Fighting Illini failed to get big wins over Alabama, UConn, and Tennessee in November and December before starting conference play 10-1. After their second Big Ten loss to Michigan State on Feb. 7, Illinois dropped their next game against Wisconsin. Then, they won their last four games of the season entering next week’s Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.
By virtue of Wisconsin’s 97-93 victory at Purdue on Saturday, the Badgers clinched the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament at 14-6. Wisconsin lost their first game against Purdue back on Jan. 3 but then the Badgers rolled off five consecutive conference wins including one at Michigan on Jan. 10. Losses to Indiana on Feb. 7, and Ohio State on Feb. 17 sandwiched Badgers defeating nationally ranked Illinois and Michigan State. Since, they are 4-1 to finish the regular season.
This season has not been everything pre-season No. 1 Purdue has asked for. The lack of athleticism has hurt the Boilermakers in their eight losses. Purdue’s only non-conference loss is to an Iowa State team that will receive a No. 3 seed or higher in the ‘Big Dance’. The Boilermakers have wins over Alabama, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA, Nebraska, but have questionable losses against Indiana and Ohio State. A run to the Big Ten title game would include beating Indiana a second time, defeating Nebraska again, and another shot at Michigan, so making it there might not be as hard as you might think.
Should be in
(6) UCLA 21-10 (13-7)
(8) Ohio State 20-11 (12-8)
(9) Iowa 20-11 (10-10)
All three of UCLA, Ohio State, and Iowa are on the right side of the bubble but they are not far from being past it. The Bruins were solid in Big Ten play with important victories over Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska after failing to defeat nationally ranked Arizona and Gonzaga in non-conference play. After going 4-1 in their last five games of the regular season, UCLA should be selected to be in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State’s recent 4-1 run to finish the regular season including wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, has put them on the right side of the bubble. A single victory over the winner of No. 9 Iowa/No. 16 Oregon/No. 17 Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament’s third round should have them in the field.
Iowa’s first regular season with Ben McCollum and first and last with point guard Bennett Stirtz certainly brought excitement to Iowa City. The Hawkeyes won games over UCLA, Nebraska, and Ohio State but lost to the conference’s No. 17 Maryland and No. 18 Penn State. They must avoid losing to the winner of the No. 16 Oregon/No. 17 Maryland in Big Ten Tournament’s second round.
On the Bubble
(10) Indiana 18-13 (9-11)
Thanks to Indiana’s win over Purdue on Jan. 27 and UCLA on Jan. 31, the Hoosiers have a small shot to make the NCAA Tournament with a run at the Big Ten Tournament. But, Indiana has losses to bottom half teams in their league Minnesota, Iowa, and USC. The Hoosiers must beat the winner of No. 15 Northwestern/No. 18 Penn State to have a chance to play the No. 7 Boilermakers and beat them for a second time this season. Then, they will have a shot to advance deep in the Big Ten Tournament and make the NCAA Tournament.
Potential Bid Stealers
(11) Minnesota 15-16 (8-12)
(12) Washington 15-16 (7-13)
(13) USC 18-13 (7-13)
(14) Rutgers 13-18 (6-14)
(15) Northwestern 13-18 (5-15)
(16) Oregon 12-19 (5-15)
(17) Maryland 11-20 (4-16)
(18) Penn State 12-19 (3-17)
After the Big Ten only allowed 15 teams in their tournament a year ago, the conference is allowing all 18 teams to play in the event for the first time ever. All eight of Minnesota, Washington, USC, Rutgers, Northwestern, Oregon, Maryland, and Penn State must win the Big Ten Tournament to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Winner: (1) No. 3 Michigan
The Wolverines only Big Ten loss is to No. 5 seed Wisconsin thanks to their offensive rhythm and quality three-point shooting. In the 15 conference wins, Michigan has done a better job at limiting the three and the opposing stretch big mens’ ability to shoot the ball from distance. Michigan wins and claims at least the No. 2 overall seed in March Madness.
Favorite
(1) No. 4 Florida 25-6 (16-2)
Despite struggling in non-conference play and a slow start to SEC play, the Gators have emerged as the final No. 1 seed entering conference tournament week. Florida won the conference by three games, dominating Alabama and Arkansas, who tied for second place, and finishing the regular season with an 84-77 victory over rival Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Winning the SEC Tournament championship would mean claiming the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Other NCAA Tournament locks
(2) No. 15 Alabama 23-8 (13-5)
(3) No. 17 Arkansas 23-8 (13-5)
(4) No. 22 Vanderbilt 24-7 (11-7)
(5) No. 25 Tennessee 21-10 (11-7)
(7) Georgia 22-9 (10-8)
(9) Kentucky 19-12 (10-8)
Besides Florida, the SEC has six locks and two more that can make it there in Nashville this week. Alabama was up and down in January but thanks to a 117-115 double-overtime victory over Arkansas on Feb. 18 and sweeping Tennessee, the Crimson Tide were able to claim the No. 2 seed in the SEC. They cannot fall from the No. 4 seed line but can definitely move up to a No. 3 with a successful week in Nashville and some bad results from teams in front of them currently in the Big 12 and Big Ten.
Had Arkansas defeated Alabama in Tuscaloosa a few weeks ago, the would be in the Crimson Tide’s spot. But the Razorbacks could have the chance to avenge their loss in the semifinals if they both win their quarterfinal games on Friday night. The Razorbacks’ resume is highlighted by non-conference wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, and conference victories over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, a sweep of Missouri, and Texas A&M. A No. 4 seed is in reach with a good week in Nashville for Arkansas.
Vanderbilt remained unbeaten until Jan. 14 when the Commodores fell to Texas and then dropped back to back games to Florida and Arkansas. Vanderbilt never reached the same level of play until their regular-season ending 86-82 victory over Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday. With the Commodores’ strong metrics, they can definitely move to the No. 4 seed line if they get to the SEC Tournament semifinals or further into the weekend.
Tennessee rose all the way to the No. 4 seed line in many projections following their road win against Vanderbilt on Feb. 21. Since, the Volunteers have taken losses to Missouri, Alabama, and the Commodores with their only win being against South Carolina in that stretch.
Georgia opened SEC play well with a 6-0 record to start league play. The Bulldogs defeated Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Missouri before taking their first league loss to Texas. Since the loss to Texas, Georgia has played up and down basketball but has finished the regular season strong with three consecutive wins over South Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi State.
Kentucky is the last lock from the SEC to make the NCAA Tournament entering Nashville. The Wildcats will play on Wednesday in the SEC Tournament for the first time in program history but thanks to victories over St. John’s in non-league play and in the SEC, sweeping Tennessee, single wins over Arkansas, and Vanderbilt in the SEC, Kentucky is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.
Should be in
(6) Texas A&M 21-10 (11-7)
(8) Missouri 20-11 (10-8)
After a 7-1 start in the SEC in January, Texas A&M dropped four games in a row. Then, the Aggies finished the season 4-2 in their last six games. Texas A&M is currently on the right side of the bubble but if they defeat Auburn in the second round and play well in their second shot against Arkansas, the Aggies will be in a great position to lock a bid to the NCAA Tournament up.
As for Missouri, getting swept by Arkansas on Saturday meant that they would not be the No. 4 seed and clinch a double bye in the SEC Tournament. Because of yesterday’s results, the Tigers fell all the way to No. 8 in the league. But wins over Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, the Tigers are in a great shape to make the NCAA Tournament with a win in Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup against either Kentucky or LSU.
On the Bubble
(10) Texas 18-12 (9-9)
(11) Auburn 16-15 (7-11)
(12) Oklahoma 17-14 (7-11)
Texas had a terrible final week of the regular season. Entering last week, the Longhorns played top seed Florida well before defeating instate rival Texas A&M. But back to back defeats to fellow rivals Arkansas and Oklahoma means that Texas has some work to do to firm up a spot on the right side of the bubble. Avenging the loss to Georgia from earlier in the season would help the Longhorns get back on the right track for their postseason hopes.
Auburn is the biggest topic of conversation on the bracket list. The Tigers would become the first team to ever make the NCAA Tournament with more than 15 losses if they do not end up winning the SEC Tournament. But Auburn’s resume is impressive including victories over St. John’s, Arkansas and Florida. Although it is unlikely the Tigers make it, a successful run in Nashville this week could turn some heads.
After starting SEC play 3-11, Oklahoma finished 4-0. Over the last month the Sooners have improved their play and in the last two weeks, they have entered at-large conversations. Oklahoma defeating Mississippi State in round 1 won’t do much for them but avenging their loss to Tennessee from earlier in the season and then beating Vanderbilt again would put them at the top of last four in conversations.
Potential Bid Stealers
(13) Mississippi State 13-18 (5-13)
(14) South Carolina 13-18 (4-14)
(15) Ole Miss 12-19 (4-14)
(16) LSU 15-16 (3-15)
After bad regular seasons, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and LSU know that they must win the SEC Tournament Championship to make the NCAA Tournament.
Projected Winner: (1) No. 4 Florida
The way the Gators have dominated in SEC play of late means they are not slowing down. Florida will win the conference tournament and become the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
3 replies on “2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Week Preview (Videos)”
Good write up!! I hope Hogs play Gator in the final SEC tournament and that the Hogs upset them!!
Me too!
👏🏼