Month: February 2024

Image Courtesy: San Diego Union-Tribune

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will share who their top four seed lines (top 16 seeds) are this afternoon at 12:30 PM ET on CBS just a month away from Selection Sunday. Here is who what I think the top sixteen will look like:

1 Seeds
1.Purdue Boilermakers 23-2 (12-2) Big Ten
2.Connecticut Huskies 23-2 (13-1) Big East
3.Houston Cougars 21-3 (8-3) Big 12
4.Arizona Wildcats 19-5 (10-3) Pac-12

Purdue and UConn are clear and away the top two teams in the country. We will see how the committee ranks them. The Huskies have looked better than the Boilermakers as of late but both teams deserve the top overall seed at this point. Whoever is better over the next month will be the top overall seed in March Madness. Houston has solidified themselves as the third overall seed entering the weekend, just a game back of the two leaders with their overall record of 21-3. A loss to Kansas is the lone set back over the last few games since losing back to back games to Iowa State and TCU on the road. Arizona’s five quad one wins have them clinging onto the overall four seed and the Pac-12 with a showdown coming up on Saturday against instate rival Arizona State.

2 Seeds
5.Marquette Golden Eagles 19-5 (10-3) Big East
6.North Carolina Tar Heels 19-6 (10-3) ACC
7.Tennessee Volunteers 18-6 (8-3) SEC
8.Alabama Crimson Tide 17-7 (9-2) SEC

The two seed line has changed so much over the last two weeks Marquette has ascended with the play of Tyler Kolek getting better and better every game. The Golden Eagles will be tested on Saturday when they face 1.UConn on the road. North Carolina’s head to head win over Tennessee the first annual ACC/SEC Challenge should put them over the Volunteers in this early reveal. That said, North Carolina’s struggles since beating Duke (and even on the Tuesday before when they fell to Georgia Tech) are real. The Tar Heels have lost three of their last five games including the game against the Yellow Jackets, at home to Clemson, and Syracuse on the road just this past Tuesday. North Carolina must bounce back at home on Saturday against Virginia Tech to continue their pursuit of a one seed and an ACC title. Tennessee must sweep the season series against Vanderbilt on Saturday to move up the two line if North Carolina loses. Alabama has quickly risen after falling in nonconference opportunities against Purdue, Arizona, Ohio State, and Creighton by splitting the season series with Auburn and beating South Carolina.

3 Seeds
9.Iowa State Cyclones 19-5 (8-3) Big 12
10.Kansas Jayhawks 19-6 (7-5) Big 12
11.Duke Blue Devils 19-5 (10-3) ACC
12.Baylor Bears 18-6 (7-4) Big 12

Iowa State has consistently been one of the best teams in the Big 12, being tied with Houston atop the league standings. The Cyclones beat Houston and Kansas earlier in conference play so TJ Otzelberger’s team is primed to be on the three line. Behind them are the Jayhawks, who have a complicated resumé up to this point. The Jayhawks have beaten UConn, Houston, and Baylor at home. But, they have lost to Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Central Florida. That is not the norm for Bill Self’s team. Since Duke’s lost to North Carolina, they have quietly gone undefeated since with wins over Notre Dame, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Those may not be the best wins for their NCAA Tournament resumé but they have gotten themselves just a half game back of North Carolina in the ACC standings. Losses against Arizona, Arkansas, and Georgia Tech earlier in the season are holding them back from moving up the seed list. Duke’s head to head win over Baylor puts them over the Bears on the three line.The Bears have beaten Auburn, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma have them as the final three seed.

4 Seeds
13.Auburn Tigers 20-5 (9-3) SEC
14.Illinois Fighting Illini 18-6 (9-4) Big Ten
15.Creighton Blue Jays 18-7 (9-5) Big East
16.Dayton Flyers 20-4 (10-2) Atlantic-10

Auburn tying the season series against Alabama last week and their forty point win over South Carolina at home on Wednesday has given them a chance to move back up to the three line with a win over a struggling Kentucky team on Saturday. Illinois is the only team in the Big Ten with a real shot to catch Purdue. The Illini’s only signature win is against Florida Atlantic so they will be hunting for one against the Boilermakers in two and a half weeks on March 5. Creighton (best win is against Providence) and Dayton (best win is against Louisville) cling onto spots fifteen and sixteen with Wisconsin, Clemson, BYU, and South Carolina right behind them with major conference resumés.

Next Up: Wisconsin, Clemson, BYU, South Carolina

So, this afternoon’s bracket reveal should something like this:

Midwest (Detroit)
1.Purdue
2.Marquette
3.Iowa State
4.Dayton

West (Los Angeles)
1.Arizona
2.Alabama
3.Kansas
4.Creighton

East (Boston)
1.Connecticut
2.North Carolina
3.Baylor
4.Auburn

South (Dallas)
1.Houston
2.Tennessee
3.Duke
4.Illinois

Image Courtesy: Spectrum News 13

February 10
TCU (16-6) @ 14.Iowa State (17-5)
2 PM ET, ESPN2
Iowa State had a setback last weekend after their last second shot against Baylor was not counted on the scoreboard. The Cyclones host a good TCU team where they must protect home court to stay in the race to reach the top of the Big 12 standings. They bounced back against Texas in midweek action and will look for a Texas sweep on Saturday afternoon. Milan Momcilovic, who scored 13 points to lead the team in the win over the Longhorns, will look to do the same against the Horned Frogs. The trio of Emanuel Miller (16.4 points), Micah Peavy (11.5 points), and Jameer Nelson Jr. (11 points) pace the offense. It will be up to their defense to stop any long runs by Iowa State to get the home crowd into game. The Cyclones are a win and a Houston loss away from taking the conference lead while the Horned Frogs need some help to move that way with a few wins in a row. Projected Score: Iowa State 77, TCU 74

10.Illinois (17-5) @ Michigan State (14-9)
2 PM ET, CBS
With Wisconsin losing back to back contests, Illinois can challenge Purdue in the Big Ten if they continue to win games ahead of their showdown on the last week of the regular season. A trip to the Breslin Center in East Lansing to face what has been an underachieving Michigan State team will prove how good the Fighting Illini really are. Terrance Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask, and Coleman Hawkins must be calm, cool, and collected if they do not want to get upset. A 6-6 Big Ten record hangs over Michigan State’s head as they enter a huge last month of the season. They too play Purdue later in the season, but Tom Izzo’s team must be focused on the present with games to win to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Tyson Walker guard has been as advertised, scoring 19 points, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game. It will be up to the supporting trio of Malik Hall, AJ Hoggard, and Jaden Akins to win a big time conference game and help themselves for the postseason. Projected Score: Illinois 81, Michigan State 79

12.Auburn (19-4) @ Florida (15-7)
3:30 PM ET, SECN
Auburn evened the season series against arch rival Alabama while Florida comes off their midweek bye entering Saturday’s showdown. The two longtime SEC opponents are in the top half of the conference standings as they look to bolster their tournament resumés. The Gators have experienced a bounce back, promising season in Todd Golden’s second season as head coach. The play of guards Walter Clayton Jr. (15.9 points per game) and Zyon Pullin (15.4 points a game) have made Golden’s job so much easier as the season has gone on. It will be up to their defense and the home environment in Gainesville to handle a great Auburn offense. The combination of forwards Johni Broome (15.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks a game) and Jaylin Williams (12.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game) makes Bruce Pearl’s team hard to defeat even when they play on the road. A win on Saturday would help the tigers keep pace with South Carolina, Alabama, and Tennessee atop the SEC. Projected Score: Auburn 87, Florida 84

Gonzaga (17-6) @ 17.Kentucky (16-6)
4 PM ET, CBS
A rare mid-February nonconference game is the afternoon headliner on CBS. The showdown between the Bulldogs and Wildcats may not have been the AP top ten match up many thought it might be in the pre-season but it is a battle between two of the top head coaches in the country, Gonzaga’s Mark Few and Kentucky’s John Calipari. Gonzaga faltered in nonconference action, not giving them a strong enough resumé to support their third place showing right now in the West Coast Conference. On the other hand, Kentucky’s offense makes them tough to beat at home. But, their defense has truly held them back, especially in a loss in a top ten battle last weekend against Tennessee. The offensive firepower of wing Antonio Reeves (almost 20 points a game) and guard Rob Dillingham (15.5 points per game) makes that side of the ball look so good. It will be up to the Kentucky frontcourt, led by Tre Mitchell (12.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game) and Aaron Bradshaw (6.2 points and 4.5 rebounds a game) to handle the tremendous trio of Graham Ike (15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds a game), Anton Watson (14.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game), and Braden Huff (10.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game). The point guard match up of veteran Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard (12.5 points and 5.8 assists a game) for the Zags and freshman standout DJ Wagner (12 points and 3.7 assists per game) will make this must watch TV. A must win game for Gonzaga if they want to get back up the seed lines. A win for Kentucky helps them get into a tough week of SEC action against Ole Miss and Auburn. Projected Score: Kentucky 96, Gonzaga 88

13.Baylor (17-5) @ 4.Kansas (18-5)
6 PM ET, ESPN
The game of the day in college basketball nationally comes as Kansas must protect home court for the second consecutive Saturday against an AP top fifteen ranked opponent, this time against Baylor. The Jayhawks come off of a disappointing loss to instate rival Kansas State and must beat the Bears to avoid falling to 6-5 in Big 12 play. The Bears are on a three game winning streak (UCF, 12.Iowa State, 23.Texas Tech) following a three game losing streak in conference play. When Houston lost to Kansas in their first appearance in Lawrence as a Big 12 member, they learned they could not rely on just a few top scorers. With the Jayhawks coming off a loss, they will be hungry to win this game. So, freshman Ja’Kobe Wolter (14.2 points a game) and senior RayJ Dennis (13.8 points and 6.4 assists per game) must be huge and get help from their teammates Langston Love, Jalen Bridges, and Yves Missi in this matchup. A win for Baylor, who is 6-3 in the Big 12, could put them at first in the conference with a win. Kansas got production from freshman Johnny Furphy in last Saturday’s win over the Cougars and will need this again to support their best four players, Kevin McCullar (19.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game), Hunter Dickinson (18.9 points and 11.1 rebounds per game), KJ Adams Jr. (12.7 points and 4.6 rebounds a game), and Dajuan Harris (7.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 1.6 steals per game). A huge game in the best conference in the country Projected Score: Kansas 85, Baylor 81

6.Tennessee (17-5) @ Texas A&M (14-8)
8 PM ET, ESPN
A win for Tennessee in College Station over Texas A&M on Saturday would put them in contention for a one seed (currently 7-2 in the SEC). A loss means moving themselves a full game back from first place in the SEC. A win for the Aggies moves them up to be in position to put themselves in third place in the league (currently 5-4 in the SEC). Dalton Knecht (20.2 points a game) and Jonas Aidoo (11.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game) must continue to give them production if they want to leave Aggieland with a win. Wade Taylor, who scores almost 20 points a game like Knecht, will be impossible to defend as well. If Taylor’s counterparts, Tyrece Radford (14.3 points and 5.5 rebounds a game) and Henry Coleman (10.3 points and 7 rebounds per game) support him offensively, the tough Tennessee defense will be challenged on the road. A huge SEC Saturday night showdown will determine if the Aggies can get back in the tournament chase as February rolls on. Projected Score: Tennessee 84, Texas A&M 80

Image Courtesy: The Fayetteville Observer

February 3
17.Utah State (19-2) @ San Diego State (16-5)
3:30 PM ET, FOX
The Mountain West is a gauntlet this season with five or six potential NCAA Tournament teams. The conference leading Utah State Aggies possess a 19-2 record and just a single conference loss. They head to San Diego to face the reigning national-runner up San Diego State Aztecs. They are two games back in conference but boast wins over Saint Mary’s, Washington, Stanford, and Gonzaga outside of the league. Utah State runs their offense through forward Great Osobor and guard Ian Martinez, who both average north of fourteen points a game. After San Diego State lost players to the pros and the transfer portal after their 2023 tournament run, forward Jaedon LeDee (20.5 points per game) stepped up his game. A huge battle in the Mountain West will determine a lot as the month of February begins. Projected Score: San Diego State 78, Utah State 77

4.Houston (19-2) @ 8.Kansas (17-4)
4 PM ET, ESPN
A huge battle in college basketball’s best conference takes center stage ahead of the rivalry battle between Duke and North Carolina. The new Big 12 member Houston leads the league with just two league losses on the road to 12.Iowa State and 25.TCU in back to back games. For most programs, a 17-4 overall record and 5-3 conference record would be acceptable through January. But, Bill Self-coached Jayhawks teams normally dominate the Big 12, which is normally loaded. With the help of a great crowd at Allen Fieldhouse, veterans Hunter Dickinson (18.7 points and 11.2 rebounds per game), Kevin McCullar (19.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game), and Dajuan Harris (7.4 points and 6.9 assists per game) must lead Kansas to a win to stay in the conference title race. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer (15.1 points per game) is very familiar playing Kansas, where he had success with the Bears. Now at Houston, he will look to continue that success with the help of fellow guards Jamal Shead (12.3 points and 5.8 assists per game) and Emanuel Sharp (12.2 points per game). A loss for the Cougars would not hurt Kelvin Sampson’s team that much but a win over the Jayhawks in their first Big 12 game in Lawrence would send a loud message to the rest of the college basketball world. Projected Score: Houston 84, Kansas 81

7.Duke (16-4) @ 3.North Carolina (17-4)
6:30 PM ET, ESPN
Since their 2022 Final Four matchup, this North Carolina-Duke game is the most important in the rivalry series. With both teams in the AP Top 10 for the first time since their 2019 ACC Semifinal matchup when the two ended up being one seeds in the NCAA Tournament that season. Since losing to an underachieving Arkansas team in the first annual ACC/SEC Challenge at the end of November and beginning ACC play with a loss to Georgia Tech, Duke’s group of freshmen have matured and helped the Blue Devils beat a hard-nosed Baylor team in New York City. They are now just a game and a half back of the Tar Heels in the ACC. After a 9-0 start in conference play for Hubert Davis’ club, they fell to Georgia Tech, a team that entered the game at 9-11 overall. Davis’ group this season is full of veterans and he expects them to bounce back quickly with Duke coming to town. Tar Heel guard RJ Davis was the only bright spot in their loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday, scoring 28 points. He has played like an All-American and potential national player of the year. Davis’ running mate, Armando Bacot has not been as great in his fifth season as he was in his previous two seasons. Bacot is only averaging north of 13 points and nearly ten rebounds a game. For most bigs in the country, those would be great stats. But, fans are used to seeing Bacot score 17-20 points and grab 15 or more rebounds a game. He has been huge in games against Duke, so expect him to step up yet again. Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (17.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game), Bacot’s match up inside, will have to be ready to face him and his back up Jalen Washington, who will also get looks against Filipowski. Also averaging over ten points for Duke is senior guard Jeremy Roach, sophomore forward Mark Mitchell, sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor, and freshman guard Jared McCain. They will pose problems for North Carolina’s Harrison Ingram, Elliot Cadeau, and Cormac Ryan. Ingram’s clutch plays, Cadeau’s playmaking, and Ryan’s shooting will be something Duke coach Jon Scheyer to watch out for on Saturday evening. The winner of Carolina-Duke 1 will control the ACC as the month of February opens. Projected Score: North Carolina 85, Duke 79

12.Iowa State (16-4) @ 18.Baylor (15-5)
8 PM ET, ESPN2
Iowa State has quietly creeped up the rankings with wins over top five Houston, top ten Kansas, and top twenty five TCU t0 put themselves a half game back of the Cougars in the Big 12 standings with a month or so of basketball left in the regular season. Opposite of the Cyclones, Baylor lost three straight games before to Kansas State, Texas, and TCU before beating UCF in the midweek slate. Despite those three losses, the Bears are just a game and a half back of first place. Freshman guard Ja’Kobe Walter (14.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game) and senior guard RayJ Dennis (13.2 points and 6.7 assists per game) make Scott Drew’s team go and will be important in defending home court against a great defensive team, Iowa State. TJ Otzleberger relies on a balanced offensive attack, led by guards Tamin Lipsey (13.9 points, 5.7 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game), guard Keshon Gilbert (13.7 points and 4.7 rebounds per game), and forward Milan Momcilovic (13.3 points per game). A win for the Cyclones could put them in the AP Top 10 and rising up seed lists. Projected Score: Iowa State 77, Baylor 76

5.Tennessee (15-5) @ 10.Kentucky (15-5)
8:30 PM ET, ESPN
Following North Carolina-Duke, a top ten SEC battle takes center stage in ESPN primetime. Both Tennessee and Kentucky lost in midweek action to South Carolina and Florida respectively. To bounce back, the Volunteers must rely on their SEC Player of the Year frontrunner Dalton Knecht, who has averaged over 28 points in SEC contests this season. Around Knecht, big man Jonas Aidoo, guard Santiago Vescovi, guard Zakai Ziegler, and forward Josiah-Jordan James will have to play the tough defense Rick Barned-coached teams are known for against one of the best offensive teams in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats. Their combination of freshmen Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw and Justin Edwards in addition to leading scorer Antonio Reeves and big man Tre Mitchell make this team impossible to stop. The Wildcats’ problem is stopping the other team. So, Tennessee will push John Calipari’s defense as much as possible to get a win. Projected Score: Tennessee 95, Kentucky 92

Saint Mary’s (17-6) @ Gonzaga (16-5)
10:30 PM ET, ESPN
At the beginning of the season, both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s were in the AP Top 25. They were the West Coast Conference favorites. Both squads may have fallen out of the rankings but the Gaels and Bulldogs are still at the top of their league. The winner of this game, a series that has turned into a heated rivalry, on Saturday night in Spokane will take lead of the West Coast. Sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney (14.1 points) leads Saint Mary’s in scoring per game with help from junior guard Augustas Marciulionis (11.9 points) and Mitchell Saxen (11.2 points), who has had big games against the Zags. For Mark Few’s team, former Wyoming forward Graham Ike (15.5 points a game), longtime Zag forward Anton Watson (14.5 points per game), guard Nolan Hickman (13.3 points a game) and Creighton guard Ryan Nembhard (12.2 points per game) make their engine go. The winner of this game will do more than just put themselves in good position for the West Coast regular season title but at moving up seed lines for March. Projected Score: Gonzaga 81, Saint Mary’s 79

February 4
2.Purdue (20-2) @ 6.Wisconsin (16-5)
1 PM ET, CBS
A battle for the Big Ten lead comes to center stage on Sunday to viewers. The Boilermakers and Badgers battle for the top spot in the conference and a spot among the top few seed lines in the NCAA tournament. Purdue has dominated Big Ten play outside of getting upset by Northwestern and Nebraska, who also look like tournament teams. Similar to Purdue,Wisconsin comes off a loss at Nebraska in Pinnacle Arena, which is one of the best home environments in the country. Entering the game, they were ahead of Purdue in the conference race, but since they have played a conference game less than the Boilermakers, they are a half game back entering Sunday’s battle. They return home where they have been successful this season. The trio of guard AJ Storr (15.9 points and 3.5 rebounds per game), forward Steven Crowl (11.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game), and forward Tyler Wahl (11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game) make Greg Gard’s team go. Crowl and Wahl will be important in defending reigning national player of the year Zach Edey (23.4 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks a game), who looks on pace to accomplish same feat this season. The addition of transfer Lance Jones (12.7 points per game) and the development of sophomore games Braden Smith (12.1 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game), and Fletcher Loyer (11.2 points a game) has been crucial to their success. The winner of this huge battle will be in control of the Big Ten with Illinois pacing right behind them. Projected Score: Purdue 84, Wisconsin 80