Image Courtesy: PennLive.com
AP Top 5
1.Ohio State 3-0 (0-0) Big Ten This week: @ Washington (3-0) (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)
2.Miami 4-0 (0-0) ACC This week: Off
3.Penn State 3-0 (0-0) Big Ten This week: 6.Oregon (4-0) (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, NBC)
4.LSU 4-0 (1-0) SEC This week: @ 13.Ole Miss (4-0) (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)
5.Georgia 3-0 (1-0) SEC This week: 17.Alabama (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, ABC)
Biggest risers and fallers in the AP Top 25 this week:
Risers
7.Oklahoma 4-0 (1-0) SEC Week 4: #11 (Defeated 22.Auburn 24-17)
11.Indiana 4-0 (1-0) Big Ten Week 4: #19 (Defeated 9. Illinois 63-10)
12.Texas Tech 4-0 (1-0) Big 12 Week 4: #17 (Defeated 16.Utah 34-10)
21.USC 4-0 (2-0) Big Ten Week 4: #25 (Defeated Michigan State 45-31)
Fallers
17.Alabama 2-1 (0-0) SEC Week 4: #14 (Off)
23.Illinois 3-1 (0-1) Big Ten Week 4: #9 (Lost to 19.Indiana 73-10)
Dropped Out
Utah 3-1 (0-1) Big 12 Week 4: #16 (Lost to 17.Texas Tech 34-10)
Auburn 3-1 (0-1) SEC Week 4: #22 (Lost to 11.Oklahoma 24-17)
New
24.TCU 3-0 (0-0) Big 12 Week 4: NR (Defeated SMU 35-24)
25.BYU 3-0 (0-0) Week 4: NR (Defeated East Carolina 34-13)
Key games this weekend (Rankings based off of AP Poll)
Friday, September 26
24.TCU (3-0) @ Arizona State (3-1)
8 PM ET, FOX
TCU and Arizona State converge in a huge Big 12 match up on Friday night in Tempe. The Horned Frogs defeated SMU in the final scheduled “Iron Skillet” rivalry game on Saturday before they open conference play this weekend. The Sun Devils went to Waco and defeated Baylor 27-24 last Saturday.
TCU’s Josh Hoover has already encompassed 11 touchdowns and 1,000 passing yards on the season. His top two weapons down the field, Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer, have combined for 577 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Sun Devil secondary will be challenged even more than they were in their loss to Mississippi State, so they will need defensive backs Myles Rowser and Adrian Wilson to step up. Defensive lineman Clayton Smith and linebacker Jordan Crook must block the running holes against tailback Kevorian Barnes, who has just a touchdown this season.
Arizona State’s offense will be difficult to deal with, especially playing at home. So it will be up to TCU’s defensive tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh and safety Jamel Johnson to make plays against Arizona State’s offensive weapons including quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Leavitt has had a slow start to the season but Tyson already has five touchdown catches. TCU does not want to let Raleek Brown’s running game set up more of Leavitt’s passing to Tyson or their stay in the top 25 may not last long.
In what should be a back and forth match up, Arizona State will protect their home field and win a close game on Friday night over TCU.
Projected Score: Arizona State 31, TCU 28
Saturday, September 27
21.USC (4-0) @ 23.Illinois (3-1)
12 PM ET, FOX
USC and Illinois come off of two entirely different week 4 outcomes. The Trojans beat Michigan State 45–31, and Indiana crushed the Fighting Illini 63–10. Illinois will look to change their fate with a victory on Saturday.
USC’s ‘quarterback whisperer’ Lincoln Riley put the ball in the hands of Jayden Maiva after Miller Moss’ move to Louisville in the off-season. The Trojan quarterback has thrown six touchdowns and has yet to turn the ball over this season. The receiving duo Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane will help Maiva continue his successful play down the field while running backs Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders, and King Miller continue their success on the ground. Illinois defensive back Matthew Bailey and Gabe Jacas will be tasked with dealing with Riley’s offense and preventing another disastrous defensive performance.
Luke Altmyer and the Fighting Illini offense will attempt to put up more than just 10 points against the Trojans. They will do that with an efficient run game setting up the passing game down the field. Running back Kaden Feagin must build on his 240 yards and three touchdowns this season so that Altmyer can easily get the ball to his receivers and tight ends. Hank Beatty, Collin Dixon, Hudson Clement, and Justin Bowick must elevate their play so that the passing game is just as reliable as the Illini running game has been this season.
The USC offense can run through the Illinois defense if both teams play how they did last week. A second Big Ten loss for the Fighting Illinois would likely mean one more away from being eliminated from the Big Ten title game and a College Football Playoff berth. The game may be close for a quarter or so but the Trojans will move to 3-0 in the Big Ten with a road win.
Projected Score: USC 38, Illinois 21
Auburn (3-1) @ 9.Texas A&M (3-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Coming off of an emotional loss against Oklahoma, Hugh Freeze’s team continues their road trip to College Station on Saturday. The Tigers will attempt to avoid back to back defeats against Texas A&M off of a bye weekend after their win against Notre Dame.
Former Sooner quarterback Jackson Arnold threw for 220 yards and a touchdown but was sacked nine times. Arnold’s offensive line game could not protect against Oklahoma’s defensive line so he could not do what he is best at using the run to set up the pass down the field. Texas A&M’s defense has not been good this season, giving up 24, 22, and 40 points in their first three games this season. But if the pass rush of defensive end Cashius Howell and linebacker Scooby Williams can get to Arnold like Oklahoma did, they could pose problems.
If the Tiger offensive line can be successful against Howell and Williams, tailback Jeremiah Cobb can create similar problems that Notre Dame gave them two weeks ago. The receiving duo of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton’s combined four touchdowns will be the Aggies’ defense focus during this week of practice.
Marcel Reed’s 9 touchdown to 1 interception ratio has been what the Texas A&M offense has needed to have success. It also helps having a receiver duo that rivals Coleman and Singleton with Mario Craver and KC Concepcion combining for seven touchdowns. Auburn safeties Sylvester Smith and Kaleb Harris will have to deal with Craver and Concepcion down the field. Le’Veon Moss has paced the Aggies on the ground with 168 yards and four scores. Tiger linebacker Xavier Atkins and defensive end Keyron Crawford will be in charge of stopping Moss and the A&M ground game.
If Texas A&M wants to make the College Football Playoff, they cannot lose to Auburn for the second consecutive season. A win over the tigers last season would’ve kept them in the SEC Championship game but they failed to do so. Mike Elko’s team will be better prepared this time and they will protect their home field and win their SEC opener.
Projected Score: Texas A&M 34, Auburn 20
4.LSU (4-0) @ 13.Ole Miss (4-0)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
The Magnolia Bowl returns to Oxford as LSU and Ole Miss battle in an AP Top 13 showdown. A road win for the Tigers would put themselves as a true College Football Playoff and national title contender while a victory for the Rebels would mean another season they could contend in a season many expected them to be retooling behind a new starting quarterback and front seven.
The LSU offense exploded for 56 points against Southeast Louisiana last weekend after disappointing performances the previous two games against Louisiana Tech and Florida where they scored 23 and 20 points respectively. They will have to take it up a level against Ole Miss’ defense who gave up 35 points against Arkansas two weeks ago before turning in a much better performance against Tulane last Saturday only giving up 10 points.
LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier will attempt to get the ball down the field as successfully as he did last Saturday when he threw three touchdown passes. He will get the ball to Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown, and tight end Bauer Sharp against an Ole Miss secondary headed by safeties Wydett Williams Jr. and Suntarine Perkins. Running back Caden Durham already has rushed for 213 yards and two scores so he will not have many problems with an Ole Miss front seven that includes Jaden Yates and TJ Dotter at linebacker and Zxavian Harris at defensive tackle.
Lane Kiffin has a quarterback controversy. Trinidad Chambliss stepped in for the injured Austin Simmons in week 3 and has not looked back since. Chambliss has thrown for 719 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Even though Simmons may give the Rebels a better chance to win games in the SEC, he has yet to be cleared to play due to an ankle injury and he has already thrown four interceptions so far this season. Whoever the quarterback is for Kiffin, will have to deal with one of the top defenses in the SEC, led by linebacker Whit Weeks and tackle Damien Shanklin.
Wide receivers Harrison Wallace III, Deuce Alexander, and Dae’Quan Wright have already combined for five touchdowns this season and they will look to go for more against the LSU secondary. Tailbacks Kewan Lacy and Logan Diggs will also try to help out Chambliss or Simmons behind center against Weeks and Shanklin.
The Magnolia Bowl has gone to the fourth quarter each of the last two seasons with both squads winning a game. This season’s battle should deliver a similar result. LSU’s offense will step up against a regressed Ole Miss defense and help the Tigers beat the Rebels by ten.
Projected Score: LSU 38, Ole Miss 28
6.Oregon (4-0) @ 3.Penn State (3-0)
7:30 PM ET, NBC
A rematch of last season’s Big Ten Championship game is the destination for ESPN’s College GameDay on Saturday. Oregon defeated Penn State in that game before falling to conference mate and eventual national champion Ohio State in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl while Penn State made it all the way to the semifinals, where they lost to Notre Dame at the Orange Bowl. Both teams have the same aspirations and to do more as they work to reach the national championship.
If Oregon wants to repeat their victorious performance against Penn State in last season’s Big Ten title game, a successful offensive performance behind first year starting quarterback Dante Moore against Penn State’s talented defense will be necessary. The sophomore signal-caller has already thrown for almost 1,000 yards and 11 scores but this will be his first true test. In front of what should be a raucous ‘white out’ crowd, the Nittany Lions defense will be tough to score on especially with linebackers Amare Campbell, Tony Rojas, and safety King Mack.
Five Duck targets including Dakorien Moore, Malik Benson, Kenyon Sadiq, Gary Bryant Jr., and Jeremiah McClellan. have combined for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. But it will be a big test facing Penn State’s secondary that may be the best one they face all season. The running back trio of Jayden Limar, Dierre Hill Jr., and Noah Whittinghton will be an interesting battle between them and the Nittany Lions’ front seven.
Penn State’s Drew Allar will face an Oregon defense that gave him many challenges when they met him last December in Indianapolis when he threw three touchdowns but also two interceptions. He has only thrown four touchdowns through their first three games a season-defining performance is needed for Allar to help lead the Nittany Lions to victory.
The tailback duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton will likely be their best offense against Oregon as they have already combined for 452 yards and eight touchdowns. Because of the talent in the backfield, it will make stopping the Penn State offense that much harder for the Oregon defense. The Ducks linebacker duo of Bryce Boettcher and Teitum Tuioti and defensive backs Aaron Flowers and Dillon Thieneman will be the leaders of the group attempting to stop the Nittany Lion offense that also includes receivers Trebor Pena, Kyron Hudson, and tight end Luke Reynolds.
In what was just an eight point game in 2024, Oregon’s trip to Happy Valley to face Penn State could have a similar result. A win for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions would give him just a fifth win over an AP top 10 team over his career as a head coach. Off of a bye week, I would normally lean choosing Penn State but give me Dan Lanning’s team to move to 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten.
Projected Score: Oregon 31, Penn State 28
17.Alabama (2-1) @ 5.Georgia (3-0)
7:30 PM ET, ABC
One of college football’s top games in 2024 heads to Athens in 2025. Last season, even in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as head coach at Alabama, the Crimson Tide defeated Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. Smart’s team looks for just their second win against Alabama in his tenure as head coach.
Since the season-opening loss to Florida State, Alabama’s passing game has grown into a force with receivers Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton catching seven passes for scores between them for 575 yards and 7 touchdowns from first year starter Ty Simpson behind center. A better running game will be necessary to beat Georgia, who has a defense that may not be as good as it has been in previous seasons but is no slouch.
Tailbacks Kevin Riley, AK Dear, and Richard Young must show up with an intense performance against the Bulldog defense. Linebackers Raylen Wilson and CJ Allen have combined for 45 tackles and multiple sacks while defensive backs KJ Bolden and Daylen Everette will both attempt to bait Simpson into throwing them each their second interception on the season.
In a similar vein, Gunner Stockton has looked like a better quarterback than many thought he would be than before this season. While he only has a combined seven touchdowns on the season, his completion percentage is almost 71% and has yet to turn the ball over this season. Having USC transfer Zachariah Branch on the outside is a nice benefit for Stockton. Branch has already caught two touchdowns but it is a balanced core with Colbie Young and London Humphries standing to him. Keon Sabb, Bray Hubbard, Domani Jackson and Alabama’s secondary will be tested.
The Alabama defense will also have to deal with the Georgia ground game. Sophomore tailbacks Nate Frazier (2 touchdowns) and Dwight Phillips Jr. (1 touchdown) have both rushed for over 100 yards. The Crimson Tide’s talented front seven including defensive tackles LT Overton, James Smith, and linebacker Deontae Lawson.
Another victory over Georgia would thrust DeBoer’s squad right back into the College Football Playoff conversation as September closes. Yes, Alabama’s struggles against Florida State four weeks ago still linger—but maybe the Seminoles are simply that good. Until Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs finally topple Alabama, I’m taking the Crimson Tide to end Georgia’s nation-leading 33-game home winning streak inside Sanford Stadium.
Projected Score: Alabama 38, Georgia 35
